Government panel warns of high risk of major earthquake in the Sea of Japan
The Japanese government’s Earthquake Research Committee has issued a significant warning about the possibility of a major earthquake in the Sea of Japan region, between Hyogo and Toyama prefectures, within the next 30 years. According to the panel, there is a 16% to 18% chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake occurring due to active submarine faults in the area.
While the fault zone along the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula, responsible for the magnitude 7.6 earthquake in January 2024, shows nearly zero chance of a similar event in the next three decades, other nearby faults could still trigger major tremors. The committee assessed 23 active offshore faults capable of producing seismic shaking of intensity level 6 or stronger and tsunamis at least one meter high.
Dividing the coast into eastern and western areas, the eastern region with 14 faults has a 12% to 14% probability of a major quake, while the western area with 9 faults carries a 4% to 6% risk. In 1927, the western region experienced the magnitude 7.3 North Tango Earthquake, which claimed nearly 3,000 lives.
At a press conference, committee chair Naoshi Hirata emphasized the high risk and urged the public not to become complacent, highlighting the importance of preparedness through drills and other preventive measures.
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun
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